Conceptual model of state collapse

Update 2026-01-11: This report is now available on Zenodo

CORRELATION has published a new report entitled “Conceptual model of state collapse”, authored by Denis G. Rancourt.

In the report, Rancourt proposes a model of the basic factors determining the stability or failure of large-scale human societies such as states or empires.

The Summary of the report reads as follows:

A minimalist conceptual model of the state is presented in which the fundamental basis of state existence and continuity is the flux of produced resources between producers and the needed state apparatus, while contending with powerful domestic non-state actors and foreign challenges. External conditions that reduce per capita production threaten state continuity, and the state attempts to survive by responding. Every decision either destabilizes the state and creates vulnerabilities or stabilizes the state on a road to recovery. The model provides a general framework for making and evaluating state decisions. It also provides predictions for circumstances that lead to state failure. I conclude that long-term state survival is possible, while describing the structural and dynamic challenges that must constantly be overcome.

Download a copy of the report below: